• Maritime search: http://www.ifremer.fr/web-com/stw2004/sar/pdf/spaulding_ppt.pdf SAROPS. Notice the use of particle filter models, with transition probabilities being governed by currents (analogous to the influence of terrain/vegetation) and by events/intentions (analogous to things like trails, drainages, and decision points).
    • I think it is an interesting parallel. Just like a disabled boat under the influence of currents, lost people can 'drift' also. Someone who has been lost for a while and who is exhausted is probably pretty much at the mercy of the terrain. They'll probably take the path of least resistance. I think the problem is being able to decide when a person will drift and when they will do things that can't be predicted with a topo map. It might be easier with boats - they probably assume the boat is damaged/drifting if they can't reach it on the radio. I used Wikipedia's article on particle filters in an attempt to better understand this. –Spencer Clark
  • Wilderness search software Incident Commander Pro. Notice how it only uses dispersion patterns, but doesn't currently use dispersion angles and distances. It also doesn't seem to use decision points.
    • I tried the demo of this software. It's klunky and the demo is crippled, to boot. You can't even pull up the GIS interface in this demo - it brings up a picture of what the actual functionality looks like… It's hard to say what the actual program is like. –Spencer Clark
  • Trail-based probability of area Terrain-based Approach to POA Estimation. This is by the same author as the Incident Commander Pro software. I'm confused that the software doesn't seem to include trail-based dispersion information. Someone needs to play with this software.
  • Bayesian network and Monte Carlo methods for POA. Send email to Mike for a copy of this paper. Lanny's preliminary work on modeling movement influenced by terrain and vegetation.
  • I found this site that seems to be interesting. It has some available code I think we can work with - http://sarbayes.org/
    • This is pretty cool. I'm surprised nobody knew about this one before? -Spencer Clark
  • Walking Straight into Circles, by Jan Souman. I find it really intriguing -Spencer G
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wisar/references-on-modeling-lost-person-behavior.txt · Last modified: 2014/08/11 13:32 by tmburdge
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